IPL Outright betting summary – 28th March 2008

Assessing the market for the outright winner of a competition like the IPL is naturally going to be difficult, as no matter how dominant any team might be, they will need to get through two sudden death knockout games to take the title, and any given team can certainly beat any other team on any given day...

At this stage, fixed odds prices are, as usual, slightly shorter than those available on Betfair, but it is always worth checking and bearing in mind the effect of commission. As ever, if you fancy a go, please click through our banners.

We have highlighted below where we think any value lies, but you should bear in mind that potential profit is likely to be found by backing pre-tournament, then laying just before the knockout stages as dominant teams are likely to be a shorter price than can be justified. My standard plan in a situation like this would be to back a team like Chennai, for example, at 6.8 at time or writing, and look to lay them around 3.2 if they play well and get through to the semi final stage, which they should. By then, all 4 teams remaining will be of high quality, and backing at 3.3-3.5 represents poor value in two “toss-ups”.

Our forecasts for the first round losers are Delhi (9.6), Kolkota (7.4), Punjab (7.2) and Rajasthan (13). From a betting viewpoint, Delhi have drifted significantly from our suggested lay in the team summary, and are probably well priced. Kolkota and Punjab are priced around our expectations, but there may be some value in backing Rajasthan. 13.0 is far too long a price for any team in this format of competition, and as every team, they have their share of match winners, particularly in Graeme Smith and Shane Warne. If they capture the elusive team spirit – and Warne in possibly his last big stage appearance is a galvanising captain – they could spring a surprise.

Our forecasts for the semi final losers are Mumbai (9.4) and Bangalore (9.6). Both represent the kind of value noted above, I would keep a close eye on their progress. I will particularly be backing Bangalore with a view to them making the semi finals for a lay.

Our selections for runner-up and winner are Chennai (6.8) and Deccan Chargers (4.9). Neither could be called value in our view. We looked at laying Deccan at 5.0, but with no great enthusiasm as they are very capable of getting a great start. If they do dominate through to the knockout stages, look for a lay shorter than 2.5.

In summary, our plays at this stage and with these odds will be to back Jaipur and Bangalore with a view to laying later, and keeping a very close eye on teams who lose their first game, preferably by getting crushed, and looking to back them in their second game if the market over-reacts.

This article by Paul Sculpher